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Bitcoin ETFs Off-Exchange Inflows/Outflows

Updated: Mar 6

GBTC , IBIT

Bitcoin ETFs, the approval, and the craze behind them have led many people to believe that they will cause inflows and have a positive impact on the price of Bitcoin. While this is a possibility, monitoring the data and volume in both directions on these ETFs is important when trying to factor in actual accumulation/distribution on the institutional front.


Because institutions use the off-exchange (dark pools) to execute many trades, and on-exchange (NYSE, NASDAQ) imbalances are small (the difference between buyers and sellers is much more marginal than in the dark pools) we are going to delve into the off-exchange volume profile for two of the largest ETFs and calculate approximate accumulation/distribution.



Starting with GBTC, which has about 20B in AUM:

Net buying of 126M shares since the ETFs were approved and started trading.

The average price during the period was approximately 42, meaning inflows reached ~$5.3B


Next is IBIT with about 2.7B AUM:

Net selling of 101M shares since the ETFs were approved and started trading.

The average price during the period was approximately 27, meaning outflows reached ~$707M




In conclusion, the net inflows for these two largest Bitcoin ETFs through the off-exchange is approximately 4.6B since the 11th of January. This is significant because the combined market cap of both ETFs is about 30 billion, meaning ~15% of the total market cap was accumulated over what was distributed. The recent move on Bitcoin has been validated by the off-exchange accumulation happening in this space. For updates and more subscribe to the free blog post notification list below.



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